2 Responses

1. SkylordR

   January 15th, 2010 at 7:53 am

   1

   Most TV poker tourneys (WPT, High Stakes Poker, WSOP, etc.) use computers to show the percentages to the viewers the strength of a player’s hand. The computer only computes the data that is entered. So if the computer is only shown 2 hands, heads up, it assumes the remaining 48 cards are all live. But if the hole-cams show a player’s cards and he mucks, those cards are usually entered into the computer field and calculated accordingly. This is why you usually see mucked hole-cams: the cards mucked probably affect one or more of the hands that see the flop. ie: player X mucks A3, player Y plays KK and player Z plays AQ. Well, now we know that player Z only has 2 Aces left in the deck to help him wile he may be thinking he has 3 outs.
   Most poker shows do live commentary during the game but often during editing will go back and re-do some scenes do to time, editing, etc. The commentators usually have monitors that show hands and percentages. Most poker pros already have percentages locked into the brains when they see any two hands go head-to-head and can spit out odds immediately.
   The percentages are based on a couple things:
   1. the number of outs (cards that can help the losing hand win) remaining in the deck factoring in any known cards mucked.
   2. the number of cards that can produce a tie and split the pot.
   (example: AsAc v AhAd. flop & turn: 2c 5c 8c 10d. This gives the two black Aces a 16% chance to win with any club on the river. Any other card results in a tie and splits the pot)
   The formula most used is this:
   Take the # outs u have remaining after the flop and multiply by 4. That will give you a ROUGH percentage. After the turn, multiply your outs by 2.
   Example: Harry has AA, Sue has KJ
   flop: KQT
   Sue’s outs: 1 of the 2 remaining K’s to give her trips, and 1 of 4 remaining 9’s to give her a King high straight.
   KK9999 = 6 outs. 6 x 4 = 24%
   the turn: KQT J
   Well, Sue got two pair but harry made the Ace high straight. But Sue still has outs: 1 of 2 Kings or 2 Jacks to give her a full house.
   KKJJ = 4 outs. 4 x 2 = 8%
   The x4 and x2 formula is a ROUGH estimate but is usually accurate to within 2-3% when runner-runner possibilities and the number of dealt cards (# of starting hands) are factored in.
   Hope that helps.

2. David Z

   January 15th, 2010 at 8:45 am

   2

   It is a mathematical probability that based on the cards still in the deck, what is the likely hood that someone will win the hand. Most poker books will tell you some of the basics, and if you watch enough poker, the pros will know many of the percentages based on what they think their opponent is holding.
   A lot of high level interesting math involved….but I’m a math teacher and tutor.