Say I have Ace of spades and Ace of diamonds while my opponent(2 players including me) has King of hearts and King of clubs. How do I calculate the chance of winning if I go all in preflop, before any of the cards show on the board?
I know I can find an odds calculator online, but I want to know how(writing a paper on probability).
Thanks 
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2 Responses
pdq
January 12th, 2010 at 10:58 am
1There are only a handful of different heads up possibilities.
Pair over pair. (A-A vs. K-K)
2 unpaired, unsuited over cards (A-K off-suit vs. J-10 off-suit)
2 unpaired, suited over cards (A-K suited vs. J-10 off-suit)
1 over card and 1 under card to the opponents 2 cards (A-10 vs. K-Q)
Split over/under, over/under (A-J vs. K-10)
Over pair to 2 under unpaired (Q-Q vs. 10-9)
Under pair to 2 over unpaired (10-10 vs. A-K)
Pair to split over/under (Q-Q vs. A-J)
You get the idea. There are a limited number of combinations. Folks have already figured out the odds to all of these possibilities. Do a search and you can find the percents. OR, just use an on-line calculator to figure out each different situation. From there it shouldn’t be hard to memorize each outcome. (I listed most of the possibilities.)
LegFuJoh
January 12th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
2It would probably be impossible to really calculate is all by hand… but if you wanted to try it…
Figure out what it would take for him to win (another King, a 9-10-J-Q, a flush of his suit, etc)…
then subtract out what you could get to beat him, even if he hit one of those (another Ace, higher straight, flush)…
Then just use the calculator and learn that pair over pair is about 80% to win preflop. Why would you really need to figure it all out by hand.
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